The risk of conflict is not as it seems
October 2023
This article was written after we left Taiwan. It answers the question asked most often by our friends outside Taiwan. Were you not always worried about a war? Did the threat of China invading Taiwan not make you nervous? We answered then the same as we answer now: no, we were not much worried about China invading. The risk of earthquakes and the summer heat bothered us. When it came to any conflict with China though, we mostly thought about it when we looked at the news outside. Otherwise, we barely thought about it at all. Here’s why.
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For many years, the Western news media has written extensively about the risks of China invading Taiwan. China is portrayed as a threat to the region, a country preparing for a fight. It bullies its neighbours, saying it will take Taiwan by force. China sends ships around the island and planes to patrol Taiwan’s skies. It picks arguments with its neighbours in the South China Sea. In the international media, China is portrayed as unstable, bent on extending its power. Everyone is constantly on edge, the story goes, waiting for the clash that could kick off World War III.
But it’s not like that when you live there, because it’s clear that China is not about to invade Taiwan.
The threat is different.
First, launching a full-scale invasion of a disputed well-armed island 130km off the coast would be a very risky undertaking especially if, as seems likely, Taiwan could count on the support of other countries to defend itself, notably the US.
Second, it is simply not the way China does things. China has not fought a serious war since 1979 and although it has been involved in a few regional conflicts since then they have been small. Invading Taiwan would require a huge troop mobilisation, with air support and landing craft. It would take months of planning, which would quickly become obvious to everyone outside. Even without the involvement of other countries, any invasion of Taiwan would likely kick off a prolonged conflict with an uncertain outcome. If the US and other nations were to defend Taiwan, the risk would be even greater. An invasion on that scale is not something any nation’s leadership would consider unless it had no other choice. A fight with Taiwan would risk a major international war, with enormous disruption to trade, and huge economic consequences. For a country of 1,400 million people to integrate 23 million this way is not worth seriously contemplating.
China usually looks for other ways to win influence when it has a need. It looks to win economic and diplomatic influence. It also tries to find ways to integrate and build relations peacefully, whenever possible. It might imprison those who resist its will, and deny them their rights for a long time, but it doesn’t bomb cities in a show of force. The reintegration of Hong Kong may have looked heavy handed to many people but China also achieved its goals quickly, and with almost no bloodshed.
By nature, the Chinese are not warmongers. Nor do they try to impose their ideology on others. As Bertrand Russell said in 1922, “the (Chinese) nation is built on a more humane and civilised outlook than (the West’s)….The Chinese are not, as a rule, good soldiers, because the causes for which they are asked to fight are not worth fighting for, and they know it….”1
Third, the dispute over Taiwan has a long history. It goes back to the end of the Sino-Japanese war more than 125 years ago, and arguably even to the 17th century. So the Chinese seem prepared to wait.
Most Taiwanese are also ethnically and culturally linked to China, with the same historical roots. While some families have been in Taiwan for centuries, others have only been there for a couple of generations. This means that many people on both sides are conflicted. Many Taiwanese want independence and their own nation. But they also see themselves as Chinese at heart, with roots to the Mainland. If they had to fight, many would find it difficult. Many Taiwanese also fret about how much they can depend on the US to protect them.
The risk of war appears to have been magnified in the international media mostly because of American concerns. China is a global rival and the US doesn’t want to share its hegemonic power. It doesn’t want a competitor which thinks differently, that might challenge US rhetoric on economic development, freedom and democracy. It doesn’t want anything to upset the international system it has taken so many decades to establish. It doesn’t want a military rival either, nor a rival military bloc.
Nor does it want a technological or economic rival, and it worries that Taiwan could help China become both. Taiwan is home to many of the smartest tech companies in the world, with cutting edge manufacturing capabilities. The US doesn’t want these falling into Chinese hands.
All this gives the US good reason to fret about a conflict between China and Taiwan. It also helps support America’s military influence in the region and promotes arms sales. The threat of war makes it more difficult for other Asian countries to resist America’s military presence.
But the West is also not getting the full story. It is told about Chinese naval activities in the South China Sea and of Chinese aircraft encircling Taiwan. But the Western media rarely point out that these aircraft do not actually enter Taiwan’s airspace. Nor are they told about the very large numbers of international warships in the waters around Taiwan, in the South China Sea, and off Japan and South Korea. It is the same with North Korea, another country that is presented as a military threat to the world. The Western media rarely mentions the near-perpetual US-South Korean war games on North Korea’s doorstep.
When China looks out, it sees itself surrounded by US troops – in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and elsewhere. Imagine how the US might feel if was the other way around, if the Chinese had a large military presence in Mexico, Canada and Cuba, with spy-planes patrolling Florida’s coast.
There is certainly a risk of conflict over Taiwan. First, because it is probably in America’s interests to bring the situation to a head. At some point there will probably be a clash between the world’s leading hegemonic power and its biggest upcoming rival. Understandably, the US doesn’t want China’s rise to continue, for it to become a competing power. Second, with so much military hardware in the region there is a risk of miscalculation. There are lots of fingers on triggers right now. Finally, there is a risk of a false flag operation starting a bigger conflagration than might be intended.
So there is certainly a risk of war. But there is very little reason to think that it will be because China suddenly invades Taiwan.
1 Russell, Bertrand (1922), The problem of China, George Allen & Unwin, London