The question we are asked most often by friends outside Taiwan is this: are you concerned about the threat of China invading? And the answer is no, we are not much worried about that. The risk of earthquakes and the summer heat bother us. The threat of conflict with China only really comes into our heads when we read the international news. Otherwise, we barely think about it at all. Here’s why.
For years, the Western news media has written about the risks of China invading Taiwan. China is portrayed as a threat to the region, a country preparing for a fight. It bullies its neighbours, the media say, and wants to take Taiwan by force. China sends ships around the island and planes to patrol Taiwan’s skies. It picks arguments with its neighbours in the South China Sea. In the international media, China is portrayed as unstable, bent on extending its power. Everyone is on edge, the story goes, waiting for the clash that might kick off World War III.
It’s not like that when you live there though, because it seems pretty clear that China is not about to invade Taiwan.
The threat is different.
First, for China to launch an invasion of a disputed well-armed island 130km off its coast would be a very risky especially if, as is possible, Taiwan can count on the support of other countries to defend itself, notably the US.
Second, it is not the way China does things. China has not fought a serious war since 1979 and, although it has been involved in a few regional conflicts since then, they have been small. Invading Taiwan would require a huge troop mobilisation, with air support and landing craft. It would take months of planning, and that would quickly become obvious to everyone outside. It would kick off a prolonged conflict with an uncertain outcome.
If the US and other nations were to defend Taiwan, the risk to China would be even greater.
An invasion on that scale and with such an uncertain outcome is not something any nation would consider unless it had no other choice. It risks starting a major international war, with enormous disruption to trade, and huge economic consequences. For a country of 1,400 million people to integrate 23 million this way is not worth seriously contemplating.
China is much more likely to bide its time and try to win economic and diplomatic influence. The reintegration of Hong Kong may have looked heavy handed to outside China but the country achieved its goals quickly, with little bloodshed.
By nature, the Chinese are not warmongers. They don’t try to impose their ideology on others. As philosopher Bertrand Russell wrote in 1922, “the (Chinese) nation is built on a more humane and civilised outlook than (the West’s)….The Chinese are not, as a rule, good soldiers, because the causes for which they are asked to fight are not worth fighting for, and they know it….”1
Third, the Chinese seem prepared to wait. The dispute over Taiwan began at the end of the Sino-Japanese war, more than 125 years ago. Many would argue its roots lie in the 17th century.
Most Taiwanese are ethnically and culturally linked to China, with similar historical roots. Though some families have been in Taiwan for centuries, others have only been on the island for a couple of generations. This means many people on both sides are conflicted. Many Taiwanese want independence and their own nation. But they also see themselves as Chinese at heart, with roots to the Mainland. To fight would be difficult. Many Taiwanese also fret about how much they cab really depend on the US support.
It’s possible that the risk of conflict has been magnified by the West. China is a rival and the US doesn’t want to share its hegemonic power. It doesn’t want a competitor which thinks differently, that might challenge US ideas on development.
Nor does it want a technological or economic rival, and it worries that Taiwan could help China become both. Taiwan is home to many of the smartest tech companies in the world, with cutting edge manufacturing capabilities. The US doesn’t want these in Chinese hands.
Talk of conflict helps support America’s influence in the region. It also promotes arms sales. The threat of war makes it more difficult for other Asian countries to resist America’s military presence.
The West is also not getting the full story. It is told about Chinese naval activities in the South China Sea and of Chinese aircraft encircling Taiwan. But the Western media rarely point out that these ships and aircraft do not actually enter Taiwanese territory. Nor are they told about the very large numbers of international warships in the waters around Taiwan, in the South China Sea, and off Japan and South Korea, which China views as threatening.
When China looks out, it sees itself surrounded by US troops – in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and elsewhere. Imagine how the US might feel if was the other way around, if China had a large military presence in Mexico, Canada and Cuba, with spy-planes patrolling Florida’s coast.
There is certainly a risk of conflict. The West doesn’t want China to become a competing power. With so much military hardware in the region there is also a risk of miscalculation. There are lots of fingers on triggers.
So there is certainly a risk of war.
But there is little reason to think that it will be because China suddenly invades Taiwan.
1 Russell, Bertrand (1922), The problem of China, George Allen & Unwin, London